Weather at the Boston Marathon for the past few years has vacillated between sweltering heat and this year’s frigid downpour. In 2012, the New York City Marathon was canceled entirely in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. And organizers of the Missoula Marathon recently announced they’re moving Advertisement - Continue Reading Below.
Because Missoula rests at the point where five valleys converge, smoke from fires throughout the region—including Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, northern Idaho, and western Montana—collects there, threatening runners’ health. In 2015, organizers were days from calling off the race when a storm blew through, clearing the air; last year, smoke poured into the valley within seven days afterward.
“We missed it by a week,” said race director Tony Banovich. A last-minute cancellation could be financially devastating to a mid-size race like Missoula, he said. “We’re trying not turn a blind eye to it—we need to take this into account, for the long-term sustainability of our event.”
Wacky weather is nothing new for runners, of course—temperatures over the 122-year history of Boston have varied from the low 30s to 90 degrees Fahrenheit, says Richard Primack, Ph.D., a Boston University researcher. He finished the race in 1970 and still runs today, along with studying the effects of climate change on biology.
But as the accumulation of greenhouse gases produced by humans continues to alter the earth’s climate, rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns could continue to affect long endurance races. “There could be positives, but I also see a lot of things to be cautious about,” says Jessica Blunden, Ph.D., a climate scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Asheville, North Carolina, who’s run several marathons (including Boston) and still logs regular mileage.
the race from mid-July to the end of June due to the increasingly lengthy wildfire season:
shortened its bike course. That’s toughest for areas with already-scorching summers, though few marathons are currently scheduled in most southern states after April or before October, Blunden says. But unexpected heat waves linked to climate change can occur anywhere—temperatures in the 80s caused organizers to call off the Vermont City Marathon mid-race in May 2016, for the first time in its 28-year history. Weather officials there estimate the number of days each year with highs exceeding 87 degrees will rise from six now to between 20 and 34 by the end of the century.
Why Cant I Eat After a Marathon. In addition to daytime highs rising, overnight lows and overall humidity are also climbing. “When you have early morning races, it might be warmer in the mornings than it used to be years ago,” Blunden says. “When it doesn’t cool off at night, your body doesn’t really have a chance to recuperate from the heat the day before. So you’re kind of already starting in the negative, in the red.” She and Primack both notice this phenomenon on their own early-morning training runs.
Longer—and more severe—wildfire seasons. Warmer temperatures have reduced the amount of snowpack in the mountains of western states, and snow there melts earlier, Blunden says. This leaves the ground and the vegetation drier. Wildfires strike earlier and are more difficult to extinguish when they occur. In addition to Montana, this affects states like Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and California, where the Salinas Valley Half Marathon was canceled in August 2016 due to poor air quality from the nearby Soberanes fire. Run Wild Missoula, of which Banovich is the executive director, canceled the River City Roots 4-Mile Fun Run in August 2015, and nearly had to do the same last year until weather cleared the smoke on race morning.
Rising sea levels. As glaciers melt and overall temperatures warm, causing water to expand, sea levels are rising, especially in the Southeast. Coastal states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida will likely experience more sunny day flooding—when high tides called king tides inundate low-lying areas. Not only could this cause races to reroute courses immediately—as almost happened to the Palm Beach Marathon last December—it can also damage or degrade roads over time, Blunden says.
Rising sea levels. Climate change contributes to the type of extreme, intense rain associated with some nor'easter storms, Primack says. Intensified storms can make race day itself difficult—as in Boston this year, or in October 2015, when Hurricane Joaquin caused the cancellation of both the Jersey Shore Half-Marathon and Shoes & Gear in Alexandria, Virginia. Or, they can cause damage that disrupts race courses, as occurred after Sandy or when Ironman North Carolina in Wilmington shortened its bike course Some runners may sit out races with extreme conditions like this years Boston, or the.
The potential upside? Eventually, climate change could bring an extended, more comfortable race season in northern states like Iowa or Minnesota, Blunden says.
These shifts aren’t happening overnight, of course—and as Blunden says, “climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.” Conditions on any given day will still be unpredictable.
So what might all this mean as you consider your race calendar? Primack and Blunden suggest a few tips:
Adjust your expectations. An analysis Primack published in 2012 shows that if average temperatures in Boston on Marathon Monday rise by the mid-range estimate of 4.5 degrees, there’s a 64 percent chance the winning times will slow by the year 2100. “The time of the race gets slower by about a minute and a half for every 10 degree increase in temperature,” he says. That trickles down to the rest of the pack. Optimal conditions fall around 55 degrees, he notes; if it’s warmer than that, plan to run at a slower pace.
Adjust your calendar. Climate changes occur slowly—but over the years and especially decades to come, runners might want to keep their effects in mind. “If I wanted to run the same race for the next 20 years to see how I do, I would be more cautious about the coastal races than anywhere else and I wouldn’t run a race in May anywhere south of Oklahoma or North Carolina,” Blunden says.
Buckle up for the ride. Some runners may sit out races with extreme conditions like this year’s Boston, or the 2012 race, where temps reached the mid-80s. Others choose to make the best of the day they’re handed and proceed. “Weather may certainly get wackier in the future, but for most races, as I like to tell my kids: ‘You get what you get, don’t throw a fit,’” Blunden says. “Just be prepared for anything.”
Cindy is a freelance health and fitness writer, author, and podcaster who’s contributed regularly to Runner’s World since 2013. She’s the coauthor of both Breakthrough Women’s Running: Dream Big and Train Smart and Rebound: Train Your Mind to Bounce Back Stronger from Sports Injuries, a book about the psychology of sports injury from Bloomsbury Sport. Cindy specializes in covering injury prevention and recovery, everyday athletes accomplishing extraordinary things, and the active community in her beloved Chicago, where winter forges deep bonds between those brave enough to train through it.
