Mary Cain has run herself into the high school and junior record books recently. Only time will tell if she is bound for glory, oblivion or somewhere in between.
  

Cain (left) has been so impressive that it’s inevitable that great expectations will be placed on her. It’s instructive to remember what has happened to some of her predecessors as phenoms.
  

The route from high school ace to world beater is the path less traveled. Stars like Mary Decker Slaney, Kim Gallagher and Lynn Jennings--high school record setters who also excelled on the world stage--are the exceptions, not the rule. And each of them encountered plenty of bumps on the road to success as an elite.
   

Predicting the future success of female middle-distance and distance runners may be the biggest crap shoot of any sport where college coaches offer scholarships. Puberty happens, bodies change, injuries occur and conditions like an eating disorder can surface. There’s a term for the downward spiral that can occur with female runners: entering the black hole.
  

Just go through the list of past Foot Locker national cross country champs or look at the fastest high school performers from 800 through 5,000 meters, and you see a lot of people who never had much fame to claim after high school. Conversely, there are a lot of accomplished open division runners who were no great shakes in high school.
  

“It is a tough thing to look at any athlete when they’re 16 or 17 and know what exactly their future will be,” says Terry Crawford, a former women’s track and cross country coach at Texas and Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo, who is now the director of coaching for USA Track & Field. “We all know that runners today are peaking later in their age than ever before. We see Olympians in terms of both females and males peaking at older ages than in the past. There are so many variables.”
    

In studying runners for several decades, Crawford has identified three components that are necessary for continued success beyond high school. 


Genetics: When bodies mature and change, there’s usually a decline in efficiency and oxygen-transporting ability, two key components of endurance. “Bottom line is what their DNA is,” Crawford says. “That’s something a coach or environment is not going to change – it’s there. For a female that’s going to predict how they mature and how their body will change.”


Mechanics: Poor form can do more than produce inefficiency. It can cause injuries over time. “I think this is where overall as a sport and as a coaching community, we’ve really leaped forward in terms of coaching to recognize how running mechanics and the overall physical structure and strength add to performance in the distance events,” says Crawford. “In other words, it’s not just more mileage.”


Support: A knowledgeable coach with a long-term view is ideal. So is having parents or an advisor who can act as a mentor during inevitable tough stretches. “Oftentimes a person starts to have a slump regardless of what time it is in their career,” says Crawford. “It’s very individual. If a runner can stay enthusiastic about the sport, continue to get the right support from both a coach and their support team--whether family or friends--then you see female athletes come out of that and take a leap in terms of their performance curve.”
  

Here’s a look at some typical paths followed by teen phenoms.


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Slaney is in a class by herself. At 14 she set the first of her 10 world records, running the indoor mile in 4:40.1. At one point she held every U.S. record from 800 meters through 10,000 meters.
  

She was always a picture-perfect runner but also had her talent exploited as a youth, once being forced to run a marathon and track race on the same weekend. She also dealt with one injury and surgery after another--likely the result of too many miles and races as an adolescent--yet ran well for three decades. Her problems with the Olympics was bad luck: too young to be eligible in 1972, too injured with calf compartmental syndrome in 1976, a victim of the U.S. boycott in 1980, a victim of a celebrated fall in 1984. She made the Olympic team in 1996, at 38, but her career was tainted with a positive test for testosterone. 
   

She had a great moment at the inaugural world championships in 1983, winning the 1500- and 3000-meter races.
  

Gallagher set the still-standing high school 800 record of 2:00.07 in 1982. She was the Olympic silver medalist in 1984 at age 20 and the bronze medalist in 1988. She battled many illnesses and conditions during her career. She died of colon cancer in 2002.


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There are a lot of runners who could be included here. Erin Keogh won Foot Locker cross country titles in 1985 and ’86 and went to Texas. She encountered an eating disorder, other physical problems and injuries. She was never again a factor on the national scene.
  

Caitlin Chock set a high school record in the 5,000 (15:52.88) in 2004. Best Running Shoes 2025 in Portland but also battled an eating disorder and injuries. In 2010 she was hit by a car and suffered a severe leg injury that ended her competitive career. She now runs recreationally and writes about the sport.


College Bust, Star Again
Runners’ World put Jennings on the cover while she was in high school, where she ran a 4:18.06 1500 in 1977 and a 4:39.0 mile in 1978. She went to Princeton but got diverted a bit from running, never winning an NCAA title. Just when it looked like her career was over, she got rejuvenated in her mid-20s. She won three consecutive world cross country titles (1990-92) and the bronze medal in the 10,000 at the 1992 Olympics.


Results: 2024 NCAA DI Cross-Country Championships
Melody Fairchild was the Mary Cain of the early 1990s, winning Foot Locker in 1989 and ’90, when she broke the course record by nearly a minute. She became the first U.S. high school girl to break 10:00 in the two-mile with a 9:55.2 in 1991, when she also was the bronze medalist at the world junior cross country championships.


She went to the University of Oregon, where her body changed, she suffered a hip injury that kept her out of competition for a year, she battled an eating disorder, and she went through family problems, including the death of her mother.
   

But she never gave up on running.  As a senior she won an NCAA title, in the 3,000 indoors, running faster than she did in high school for the first time. She earned a berth in the 5,000 at the 1997 world championships.
   

Now 39 with a 2:44 marathon to her credit, she lives in Estes Park, Colorado, where she Nutrition - Weight Loss, focusing on what she calls “holistic” coaching, and competes in mountain races. Last September, Running in the Cold in Italy.
   

Good, But Not Great Collegian interview with Colorado Runner, she said, “I’d love to see it mandatory for every female college freshman to take a year off and let herself adjust in all the ways that there needs to be. There needs to be a transition to college life, to how you’re going to eat when mom and dad aren’t feeding you, and just let the body take a break after it’s been pushing itself for four years to get that full-ride scholarship.
   

“I get the chills thinking about the number of women I’ve met along my adult path since I was 22 who have horror stories about what they went through in high school and college. It stayed with them. Some of them are adults moving into middle age and they’re still struggling with it. It’s just very sad.”