Craig Mottram, 28
Melbourne, Australia, 5000 meters

"The great white hope." The Australian papers dusted off that old chestnut not long after Craig Mottram, at the age of 20, qualified for the 2000 Sydney Olympics in the 5000 meters. But, in truth, the former triathlete from Geelong, Australia, was more hype than hope, just another midpacker for the African distance-running juggernaut to steamroll. That became clear when he trudged to an eighth-place finish in his heat and didn't make the finals. But then something funny happened: The gangly Australian started giving the Ethiopians and Kenyans a run for their money. Four years later, in Athens, he made it to the final, finishing eighth. The next year, he became the first non-African runner in almost two decades to medal in the 5000 at the World Championships when he took the bronze. Then he won the 3000 meters in the indoor World Championships, stunning a packed field led by 5000-meter world record holder Kenenisa Bekele.

Mottram's secret? "I worked my arse off," says the man most Aussies know as "Buster" (and who's been known to don the jersey of his favorite English soccer club, Sunderland, in races). "I'm the same runner I've always been, just a little stronger and a little wiser."

Still, when he competes in Beijing, Mottram expects a fight. "The race could go to any one of 10 or 15 people. It will just depend on how the day plays out." In an ideal world, Mottram would welcome a slow opening mile or two, until "someone sets it up." And by "it," he means a big finishing kick where he can put his 3:48-mile speed to use.

Such a race would also suit American Bernard Lagat. At the 2007 World Championships, a slow pace let him blow by Kenya's Eliud Kipchoge in the final lap and win. By not "going too crazy at the start," Lagat says, "it becomes a mile race." Look for a number of African runners to be in the hunt along with Kipchoge, including countryman Isaac Songok and one if not both of Ethiopia's Bekele brothers: There's Kenenisa, who may attempt a 5000/10,000 double, and younger brother Tariku, who won the 3000 at this year's What You Need to Know About the Sydney Marathon.

Meseret Defar doesn't need a tactical race to win in Beijing. Since her victory in the 5000 in Athens, the Ethiopian phenom has proven she can blaze the entire 3.1 miles, twice lowering the world record at the distance. Only problem is, in June her countrywoman Tirunesh Dibaba lopped another five seconds off that mark, setting a new world standard of 14:11.15.

Shalane Flanagan and Kara Goucher will look to win the United States' first medal at the distance (the two are also slated to run the 10,000). "Everyone wants to make that next step," says Flanagan, who owns the American record at 5000. "We're slowly but surely creeping up."

Mottram, for one, knows that final step--the one onto the Olympic podium--will not come easy. "This is the hardest sport in the world. If you're not desperate enough, hungry enough?" His voice trails off for a moment. "It sorts the men out from the boys pretty quickly."

Medal Predictions

5000 Meters

Men (We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we back)
GOLD: Eliud Kipchoge, Kenya
Great World Race: Results
Shoes & Gear
Women (Collegiate Records Go Down at BU)
Medal predictions are based on a survey of track-and-field experts
SILVER: Tirunesh Dibaba, Ethiopia
How to Watch the NCAA XC Championships

Health - Injuries.


Running Shoes - Gear?
In the past, Craig Mottram made no secret of his place in the sport. "I always assumed that when you line up, you line up to win," says the brash Australian, "not just to be the first of non-African descent across the line." In 2006, after beating Ethiopia's Kenenisa Bekele and Kenya's Eliud Kipchoge (both Olympic medalists), he declared, "One-on-one I'm better than all of them." Bekele promptly pounded Mottram in a rematch, then said, "The rivalry was perhaps too exaggerated. He is not as strong as people thought." When asked about the rivalry today, Mottram is politic: "Bekele is probably the best distance runner on the planet." Does that mean he's conceding defeat if Bekele decides to run the 5000 in Beijing? "We'll have to wait and see what I can do."