Can you drink booze after the vaccine is set to reveal what the UK's exist out of coronavirus necessitated lockdown might look like, with a 'roadmap' of how schools and workplaces could re-open, when it's thought to be safe to do so. On the agenda? What safety measures could be implemented to swerve the possibility of cases of the virus flaring back up.
His announcement comes as the UK records the highest death toll from COVID-19 in Europe, at 30,000.
The Prime Minister's de facto deputy, First Secretary of State Dominic Raab previously laid down five criteria that must be met before an exit out of lockdown could be considered. They are:
- Evidence that the NHS can cope across the UK
- A sustained fall in daily death rates
- Coronavirus: Are exercise rules likely to change
- Confidence that supplies of testing and PPE are able to meet demand
- Published: 07 May 2020
One thing that's crucial, when it comes to getting a handle on the deadly virus, is the R0, or reproductive number. 'This means the average number of other people than an infected individual passes the virus onto. Before lockdown, that would be around three,' explains Linda Bauld, Professor of Public Health at the University of Edinburgh.
An R0 below one is the news you want. This means that the outbreak is contracting. And now, it's estimated that the UK's is somewhere around the 0.7 mark. Johnson has stressed that to avoid a 'second peak' of the virus, it's crucial that this number stays in the decimal figures.
As all of this rolls on, here's 8 things that you should know about how your break-up with effective house arrest could look, when it actually does come around.
1. 'Normality' will likely resume in phases
Professor Bauld said: 'If we look at what other countries are doing, they are releasing the population in staggered ways, so a phased approach is likely.' She noted that officials from the Czech Republic released their stages of lock-down relaxation in late April, for example.
The country started lifting measures by allowing people to jog, cycle and and walk in the countryside provided they stayed to metres apart, before later allowing non-essential shops to open and sports centres to operate, again provided that people stay 2 metres apart from one another. Later in May and June, restaurants, hairdressers and beauty salons are slated to re-open.
2. The government will need to prioritise
So, what might the UK's staggered release plan look like? Professor Bauld notes that each country's priorities will have an impact on what goes first – for example, in Germany, vehicle production was one of the first things to start back up, while in Evidence that the rate of infection is decreasing, there was a focus on education, with schools and nurseries top of the agenda. Reports state that primary schools are likely to be a focus here, perhaps re-opening in June.
Robert Dingwall, Professor of Sociology at Nottingham Trent University says that key to a phased approach would be working out how we know to move from stage-to-stage.
'We need to think about what has actually contributed to interrupting virus transmission,' he says. 'Probably not school closures or sunbathing in parks. What presents manageable risks? Could we restart the Premier League by only using one seat in every three and enforcing sitting in them?
'What is clearly high risk? Probably pubs but not pub gardens, providing they are not overcrowded. What risks should people be allowed to decide for themselves? Fit over 70s with no co-morbidity choosing to go out, shop, meet grandchildren, etc?'
3. Some measures will need to be in place until we have a vaccine
Think: restaurants open but only a third full; keeping two metres between yourself and other people on public transport; having to book a slot to go to non-essential shops, as is happening in Spain.
Professor Neil Ferguson (yes, of the 'broke lockdown to meet his lover' fame), the former key epidemiologist advising the Government until his scandal-forced resignation this week, said earlier this month: 'The only exit strategy from this long term is vaccination or some other kind of innovative technology.' The United Nations has also said that a vaccine is sole away back to 'normality.'
So, when might that be? The team working on a vaccine at Oxford University, headed up by Professor Sarah Gilbert, said in March that they 'have a vaccine candidate and are working towards the first clinical testing phase.' In late April, Are runners actually social distancing. The team's hope is that a working vaccine could be available towards the end of 2020 – but it would, of course, then take time to scale up and distribute.
4. You could need to pick a set number of people to hang with
At first, at least. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon unveiled a document on relaxing restrictions yesterday – and this included that she was looking into expanding how many people you are allowed to spend time with. This theory is known as a 'social bubble.'
'This strategy involves opening up your social circle to a small number of additional people. With this, you would be able to meet up with your 'bubble' once or twice a week, but not daily,' details Professor Bauld.
A bubble, for example, could look like a young family of two parents and two children, plus another family of the same structure, who live in walking distance from one another. This would mean that the adults get help with childcare; the kids get some extra stimulation from new people to play with. New Zealand has implemented a similar measure, to start their exit.
While Scotland has the power to make devolved health decisions, and so Sturgeon's decisions aren't necessarily what will happen in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, Professor Bauld notes that it would be weird for the Scots to go down this path and not the other countries in the United Kingdom, given that all governments are being presented with the same evidence.
5. You might download an app to help trace infection
Singapore and South Korea used a strategy of tracing people who have been infected with the virus' contacts and then testing them. (The former, it should be noted, has now had to go into a strict lockdown is set to reveal, planning on rolling out an app.)
And, given that Health Secretary Matt Hancock said in late April that the government is planning on rolling out an app to let you know if someone you've been in contact in has contracted the virus – so that you can self isolate or get tested – this could be where we go. The NHS COVID-19 tracing app, is, however, opt in. A trial is currently underway on the Isle of Wright to see what pick-up looks like. Concerns have also been raised over possible privacy issues, with regards to a central system holding submitted data.
These have been refuted this week, however, by Ian Levy, the technical director of the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC). He wrote Should I wear a mask when Im running.
6. Work could be pretty different
While there seems to be a a focus from the government on getting people back to work, physically, this could look pretty different to what you're used to. A draft document seen by the BBC on workplaces as we ease away from lockdown says that hot-desking could be a relic.
In order to keep public transport quiet, we might be asked to work staggered shifts, and one plan being discussed is to ask workplaces to routinely test people without symptoms, to keep a tight handle on transmission.
7. Facemasks could be standard
It looks like some sort of face covering could be part of allowing people out of lockdown and back to some kind of ability to move around.
In a press briefing last week, the Prime Minister said: 'What I think Sage [The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies] is saying, and what I certainly agree with is that as part of coming out of the lockdown I do think face coverings will be useful, both for epidemiological reasons but also giving people confidence they can go back to work.'
8. Certain demographics could be released before others
One way of easing lockdown could be to let healthy people return to some version of a more 'normal life' and go into work, while protecting people who are more vulnerable to serious complications, should they contract COVID-19. The Telegraph reports that continuing to shield the these groups – people with certain health conditions or over a certain age – might be a strategy considered by the government to allow the economy to slot back into motion.
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